Bookmark this guide to understand what all the stats mean, and learn how to use them to your advantage. We'll be updating this document frequently.
This article will cover specific data definitions for Supporting Stats and Team Rankings you find on the Market Details page for every bet. Both categories of data are important to understand what they mean, and when to apply them to your analysis.
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Let's start with Supporting Stats.
Understanding How Supporting Stats are Used for Soccer Player Props
As you scroll below the initial hit rate charts for any player prop bet in Outlier (for any sport), you will be shown a table of additional stats. These Supporting Stats are chosen specifically to coincide with the market you selected (Goals, Assists, etc). They update as you change the time range, player, market, etc. to give you the most even look at data to analyze whether a bet will hit or not.
Try it for yourself. Scroll down to Supporting Stats, then start toggling filters. You'll see they update to match the exact situation you've set up.
Below is a list of the most popular player prop markets, and the most relevant Supporting Stats for each one.
Abbreviation Note: "x" stands for Expected, so xG = Expected Goals. "GOT" stands for Goals on Target. "np" stands for Non Penalty, so npxG = Non Penalty Expected Goals.
Assists
Chances Created, Final 3rd Passing, Crosses, Passes in Opp. Half, Big Chances Created, Through Balls, Minutes, xA
Shot Attempts
xG, Touches in Box, Shots In/Out Box, Set Piece Shots, Shot Accuracy, Touches, Fastbreak Shots, Minutes
Shots on Goal
xG, Shot Accuracy, Inside Box Accuracy, Outside Box Accuracy, Touches in Box, Fastbreak Shots, Minutes
Goals
xG, npxG, xGOT, npxGOT, Shot Accuracy, Shots on Goal Conversion, Touches in Box, Big Chance Conversion, Penalty Conversion, Shots In/Out Box, Inside Box Accuracy, Outside Box Accuracy, Minutes
Goals Outside the Box
Shots In/Out Box, Outside Box Accuracy, Outside of Box Shot Conversion, xG (Non-Penalty), xG Free Kick, xG On Target (Non- Penalty), Minutes
Header Goals
xG Header, Header Accuracy, Header on Goal Conversion, Aerial Win %, Minutes
Passing Attempts
Passes in Own/Opp Half, Fwd Pass %, Touches, Long Balls, Pass Accuracy, Minutes
Key Passes
Assists, Passes Into Final 3rd, Final 3rd & Box Entries, Through Balls, Fwd Pass %, Touches, Pass Accuracy, Minutes, xA
Crosses
Passes Into Final 3rd, Passes Into Box, Crosses, Minutes
Dribble Attempts
Touches, Times Tackled, Overruns, Dribble Efficiency, Minutes
Touches
Pass Accuracy, Passes in Own/Opp Half, Dribble Efficiency, Times Tackled, Minutes
Clearances
Duel Win %, Tackle Win %, Head Clearances, Blocks, Interceptions in Box, Interceptions, Minutes
Defensive Tackles
Tackle Win %, Duel Win %, Interceptions, Cards, Minutes
Keeper Saves & Goals Against
xG Conceded, npxG Conceded, Diving Saves, Penalties Faced, Goals Conceded, Shots Conceded, xGOT Conceded, npxGOT Conceded, Minutes
Card Count, Card Points, Fouls, and Red Cards
Fouls, Dangerous Plays, Minutes
Supporting Stat Definitions
We've removed the obvious stats like Assists, Minutes, etc in order to keep the list concise.
Stat Name | Definition |
Aerial Win % | Ratio of headers (aerial duels) won to lost |
Big Chance Conversion | Ratio of success on clear-cut scoring opportunities, such as a one-on-one situation or a shot from just a few yards out |
Big Chances Created | A pass which led to a clear-cut scoring opportunity, such as a one-on-one situation or a shot from just a few yards out |
Blocks Pass | A player blocks a pass at close range |
Blocked Cross | A player or team blocks or interferes with a crossing attempt |
Cards | Count of red and yellow cards |
Chances Created | Measure of Assists that lead to a direct goal scoring opportunity |
Crosses | Passing attempts into the box that originate from the corner during open play or set pieces |
Dribble Efficiency | Ratio of success on contests where a dribble past a player is attempted (contests always involve two players) – it does not include 'overrun' situations where the attacking player takes on an opponent but the ball runs away from them and then out of play or to an opponent |
Duel Win % | Ratio of success on duels for possession over an open ball |
Fastbreak Shots | Shot resulting from a counter-attack |
Final 3rd & Box Entries | A pass where the ball moves from outside the final third into the final third, or outside the penalty box into the penalty box |
Final 3rd Passing | Ratio of assist success inside the final third |
Fwd Pass % | Percentage of forward versus backward passes |
Head Clearances | Attack clearance via a header |
Header on Goal Conversion | Ratio of goals scored by header versus attempts by header |
Inside Box Accuracy | attemptsIbox, attemptsIboxTarget |
Interceptions | A defending player intercepts a pass between opposition players. |
Long Balls | All pass events (i.e. includes throw in, crosses & gk throws) that start in a player/team’s own half and end in the opposition half. |
Overruns | A player attempts a dribble but hits the ball too far ahead and loses it |
Tackle Win % | The ratio of success for take ons attempted vs won |
Through Balls | Passes that leave a player one-on-one with the goalkeeper |
xA | Expected Assists is a probability metric that measures how likely a pass is to lead to a goal. |
xG | Total Expected Goals s a probability metric of all shots (for team totals, total expected goals will not equal the sum total of xG due to rebound situations) |
xG Free Kick | Expected Goals from Free Kicks |
xG On Target (Non-Penalty) | Expected Goals on Target from Non Penalty situations |
xGOT | Expected Goals on Target |
xG Conceded | Expected Goals Conceded |
npxG Conceded | Non-Penalty Expected Goals Conceded |
Shots Conceded | attemptsConcededIbox, attemptsConcededObox |
Goals Conceded | Goals Conceded by the Keeper |
Dangerous Plays | Foul for play which could cause serious injury to an opponent |
Understanding How Team Rankings are Used for to Handicap Soccer Matches and Player Props
A lot of the same stats and data can also be used on a Team level (as opposed to individual player prop) in order to analyze a matchup and handicap an expected outcome.
All of this information is available on every Match Detail and also Player Prop Detail page. On iOS, you can find this by tapping the icons on the top right of a market screen.
(To be expanded)
