If you treat PrizePicks like a lottery, you will lose.
Using a clear PrizePicks strategy turns it into a fixed-odds puzzle you can solve with math, discipline, and smart research. This post explains the mechanics behind the payouts, how to find slips that clear the break-even threshold, and how to avoid the Goblins and Demons that quietly drain your bankroll.
How PrizePicks really structures its slips
PrizePicks offers simple inputs: choose more or less on a player's prop, then combine two to six legs into a slip. The platform gives predetermined multipliers depending on whether you pick a power play or a flex play. Power plays require you to hit every leg for the top payout. Flex plays offer insurance: you can miss one or more legs and still receive a reduced payout or get your stake back.
Those multipliers are fixed and include your entry. That means a listed 6x payout on a $20 slip returns $120 total, which nets you $100 profit. Because payouts are fixed, each slip implicitly encodes a break-even probability per leg. If your true hit percentage for the picks you choose exceeds that break-even, you have positive expected value; otherwise you will lose long term.
Break-even math — the single most important concept
Every slip type has a known implied probability. For example, a two-leg power might imply an average odd near minus 137 per leg, while a three-leg power might imply minus 122 per leg. Those differences matter. You only need to compare your model or read of a player's true win percentage to that implied threshold.
If your average fair odds on the legs you choose clear the slip threshold, that slip is +EV. Use a simple spreadsheet to convert each leg's fair value into an implied percentage, average those percentages and compare to the slip requirement. If your average is higher, you have an edge.
Where to Find that Edge: fair value and where Outlier comes in
The quickest way to identify +EV slips is to focus on fair value odds for each pick rather than the nominal multiplication. Look for legs where Outlier shows a fair value better than the implied odds PrizePicks assigns to that slip type.
Example: if your top three picks are each at fair value odds of about minus 126, and a three-leg power requires roughly minus 122 per leg, that combo clears the threshold and becomes profitable long term — assuming you maintain disciplined bankroll management.
Goblins, Demons, and why the flashy payouts are traps
PrizePicks also offers alternate lines nicknamed Goblins and Demons. Goblins are softer, easier-to-hit lines that reduce payout. Demons push players to extreme lines with huge multipliers. Both look tempting but both complicate implied probability math.
Demons often correspond to market lines that carry huge positive odds on traditional books. For instance, a 29.5-point prop listed at plus 600 at DraftKings or FanDuel is legitimately hard to hit; pairing those into a slip turns your selection into a lottery ticket. Goblins can be inconsistent — two goblins might return different multipliers depending on the selection — so implied probabilities are hard to calculate.
Our recommendation: avoid Goblins and Demons unless you have a specific game-scripting model and the time to test in-game scenarios. For everyday PrizePicks strategy, stay with regular lines and focus on slots where your fair value beat is clear and measurable.
Practical checklist for building profitable PrizePicks slips
Calculate fair value. Convert model odds to implied percentages for each leg.
Average the percentages. Compare the average to the slip break-even threshold.
Prefer flex when it improves variance control. Flex can return your stake on partial hits and reduce variance for the bankroll.
Avoid Goblins and Demons without a tested game script. They obscure implied odds and increase variance.
Use promos carefully. A promoted line can act like a normal line; evaluate it on fair value merits.
Manage stakes. Use unit sizing and a bankroll plan that accepts the high variance of parlays.
Final rules to follow
Treat PrizePicks like a market with fixed payouts, not a lottery. Build a repeatable PrizePicks strategy: calculate fair value, average implied probabilities across legs, pick slips that clear the break-even requirement, manage your bankroll, and avoid the flashy temptations unless you can model them precisely. Skill wins over time.
FAQs
How do I know the break-even percentage for a given slip type?
Each slip multiplier translates into an implied probability per leg. Use the slip payout to compute the required geometric average success rate and convert that to the per-leg implied percentage. If your true per-leg probability exceeds that number, the slip is +EV.
Should I ever bet Goblins or Demons?
Only if you have a tested game-scripting model that produces reliable edge estimates for those extreme lines. For most players, Goblins and Demons are high-variance traps that make implied odds opaque.
Is a flex play better than a power play?
Flex reduces variance by paying out on partial hits, but it also lowers top-end return. Use flex when your model indicates a modest edge but you want lower bankroll volatility; use power when you are confident each leg clears the stricter threshold.
How often should I revisit my PrizePicks strategy?
Continuously. Player roles, minutes, injuries, and promos change weekly. Re-evaluate models and line shop before placing slips and maintain a running spreadsheet of long-term results.
Next steps
Start building a tracking spreadsheet, focus on measurable fair value, and size your bets so your bankroll survives variance. A disciplined PrizePicks strategy turns fixed payouts from emotional gambles into calculated wagers that can be profitable over time.