Want to level up your NFL betting strategy this season and maximize your profits?
In this guide you’ll get a clear, step-by-step blueprint for NFL Positive EV Betting.
From the core idea of beating the closing line to the exact Outlier Pro filters you can use to find plays. If you want to stop guessing and start building long-term profits, follow these steps and apply them to your bankroll plan.
Here’s what you’ll learn:
What Positive EV betting is and why it’s so powerful
How to find edges in NFL betting lines
How Outlier's Pro tools make EV+ betting efficient
Real-life examples of EV betting in action
Pro tips for managing bankroll and staying consistent
Table of Contents
Step 1: Understand what +EV means and why you must beat the closing line
Positive expected value (EV) betting simply means placing wagers where the price you get is better than what the market ultimately settles on — the closing line. If the closing line is Patriots +3 and you can obtain Patriots +6 earlier, you’ve locked in value. Over time, consistently beating the closing line correlates with profitability because the closing number is the most efficient market price (it reflects the most information and sharp money).
Why the closing line matters:
It incorporates the most news (injuries, weather, game-time conditions).
It reflects sharp action and biggest liquidity, so it’s the market’s consensus.
Beating that number is effectively betting with an edge — not just a hunch.
Step 2: Learn the difference between sharp books and retail (soft) books
Sharp books (Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker) accept large professional wagers and move quickly when pros bet. Retail or soft books (FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, ESPN Bet) often limit winning accounts and move slower because they take more recreational action.
How to exploit the difference:
Watch sharp book lines first. When a sharp book moves (e.g., Circa drops Pats from +3 to +2) that’s information.
Shop retail books for the old number (FanDuel may still be +3). Grab that stale price and you’ve locked CLV (closing line value).
Here is an excellent guide on Soft and Sharp Sportsbooks.
Step 3: Time your bets — use the midweek “value zone”
Price discovery is a process. Opening lines (Sunday night / Monday) are low-limit and noisy. By midweek (Tuesday–Saturday) limits increase and news accumulates — this is the value zone. That’s where information and value cross and where you have your best chance to lock meaningful edges.
Practical timing rules:
Target Tuesday–Saturday for most spreads.
If you find a small edge in a high-limit market (large limits like $30k–$50k), that small edge can be trusted and is playable later in the week.
Bet earlier if you trust your model and accept more variance; bet later if you prefer liquidity and certainty.
Step 4: Use Outlier Pro to find NFL EV+ betting opportunities
Outlier Pro’s positive EV tool lets you compare sharp books to the retail market and filter plays. Below are the settings we use as a baseline — adapt them to your style.
Devig books: Use Pinnacle, Circa, Bookmaker as your sharp source of truth.
Minimum sharp books: Set to 1 and use uniform weighting (equal influence) — tweak if you prefer one book more than another.
Devig method: We use multiplicative (good for standard spreads). Conservative users can choose the worst-case method.
Variation: Leave at 0 and eyeball disagreement between sharp books; conservative bettors can set 1–3%.
Kelly multiplier: New bettors should consider quarter or eighth Kelly.
Minimum EV percentage: Set this to 0 — I want to see every possible edge, then deep-dive into movement and context.
Odds cap: We usually limit to +150–+200 to avoid extreme variance from longshots.
Pinnacle limit filter: Look for lines with >$5,000 because the market is starting to shape up.
Resources on Outlier to learn these techniques:
Closing Line Value guide (https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/positive-ev-betting/understanding-closing-line-value-sports-betting/).
Step 5: Size bets properly — Kelly and bankroll rules
Use Kelly to size bets, but scale back. Full Kelly is too aggressive because your edge is estimated, not certain. I recommend:
Start with quarter or eighth Kelly if you’re new.
Move to half Kelly when you’re confident in your edge estimation.
Maintain a bankroll management plan — see Outlier’s bankroll guide: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/betting-intelligence/bankroll-management/
Step 6: Line shopping and a real example
Line shopping locks value. Example (from a season lookahead): Outlier flagged Buffalo Bills -3 at Hard Rock while Pinnacle’s price implied the true VIG-removed value was slightly lower. If Hard Rock offered +135 vs Pinnacle's effective +132 after removing vig, that gap is your edge — but check Pinnacle’s limit (if it’s only $5k and you’re a large bettor, that lowers confidence).
Before you press “bet”: confirm sharp books are stable (not rapidly moving), cross-check other books for outliers (Bet365, Bovada), and decide your stake using your Kelly multiplier and bankroll rules.
For deeper reading on line movement and shopping, check these pages (copy-paste into your browser):
How to level up your line shopping: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/betting-intelligence/how-to-level-up-your-line-shopping/
Finding expected value wagers: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/betting-intelligence/finding-expected-value-wagers/
Step 7: Build a repeatable process and stick to it
To consistently use positive EV betting as your edge, you must:
Track every wager versus the closing line (measure CLV).
Refine your filters and devig settings as you gather results.
Stick to your bankroll plan and Kelly sizing.
Shop multiple books and use Outlier to surface value early in the week.
Quick checklist before you place a bet
Is the price better than the sharp (after devig)?
Are the sharp books stable or moving against you?
Is the Pinnacle (or sharp) limit large enough to trust the number?
Does this bet fit your bankroll/Kelly sizing?
Conclusion — how to start with nfl positive ev betting this season
nfl positive ev betting isn’t about short-term hot streaks — it’s about repeated, disciplined edge capture: beat the closing line, use sharp books as truth, bet during the value zone, size with Kelly (conservatively), and shop lines. Use Outlier Pro to surface plays faster and refine your filters over time.
If you’re ready to dig deeper, check these Outlier resources and begin tracking your CLV today:
Stick with the process, learn from every bet, and you’ll give yourself the best shot at long-term success.