In this guide we'll walk you through the exact, repeatable process you can use to find smart anytime touchdown bets using Outlier. If you enjoy wagering on touchdown bets but want to stop guessing or blindly tailing picks, this pipeline will help you find +EV opportunities in under 10 minutes each NFL gameday.
Quick overview: the 3-step touchdown bets pipeline
Find games with touchdown potential using game lines and totals.
Shortlist players by role, usage and injury opportunity (targets, red-zone work, rush share).
Confirm with a positive expected value (EV) market scan and line-shop the best price.
Step 1: Identify game environments that produce touchdown bets
Start at the game line / totals screen. High totals usually mean more touchdowns, but don’t ignore low-total games — those markets can produce better odds on touchdown bets because the market expects fewer scoring opportunities (and underpriced longshots can pop).
Use total and spread context to prioritize games before you dig into player-level data.
Step 2: Shortlist players with real touchdown opportunity
Move to the player-prop view and filter for Anytime TD markets. For each player you consider, look for:
Target share and red-zone targets (inside the 20)
Rush attempts and red-zone rush attempts (rush share near goal line)
Usage trends this season and last season
Opponent-specific TD-allowed rates (how opposing RBs/WRs/TEs have fared)
Matchup summary and team offensive/defensive rankings
Injury reports that open red-zone opportunities
Example: when evaluating a running back like James Cook you care about his red-zone rush share as much as his overall rushing volume — that often determines touchdown probability.
Step 3: Only pull the trigger on EV+ touchdown bets
After you shortlist players based on role, usage and matchup, scan the market for positive expected value. Outlier’s +EV filter runs through books and compares market prices to expected touchdown probabilities (DeVig and other methods).
We use a custom EV filter to surface props where the market price implies a lower probability than my model. When both your scouting checklist and the EV filter align, you’ve got a long-term edge.
Outlier also makes line-shopping simple: one-click to the sportsbook offering the best odds so you lock in the best price. Price rules everything — if two books offer +165 and +185 on the same anytime touchdown, take the +185.
Common mistakes to avoid with touchdown bets
Chasing spike prices without rechecking the line — always confirm the current price before betting.
Ignoring line shopping — small price differences compound over a season.
Overfitting tiny samples (2–3 game hot streaks) — touchdown props are high variance.
Trusting your gut over EV data — if the market shows +EV, that’s the mathematically correct side to favor long-term.
Related articles
Expected value and +EV basics: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/positive-ev-betting/part-1-introduction-to-positive-ev-betting/
How to find value with player touchdown props: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/nfl-player-prop-strategy-betting-tips/finding-value-with-player-touchdown-props/
How to win with running back props: https://outlier.bet/sports-betting-strategy/nfl-player-prop-strategy-betting-tips/how-to-win-with-running-back-props/
FAQ — Touchdown bets
Q: What’s the single best stat for touchdown bets?
A: Red-zone usage (targets or rush attempts inside the 20) is the most predictive single factor for touchdown probability. Combine it with goal-line rush share for running backs.
Q: How do you measure +EV for anytime touchdown bets?
A: Compare the market price (implied probability from the odds) with your model’s probability estimate. Use DeVig or multiple methods to estimate fair probability and surface positive expected value opportunities.
Q: Are touchdown bets worth it given the variance?
A: They’re high variance but +EV touchdown bets are valuable portfolio pieces. Size them appropriately and stick to disciplined bankroll management to handle variance.
Q: Should I always take the highest available odds?
A: Yes — price rules everything. If your research shows +EV, always take the best available line across sportsbooks.
Final notes
Stop guessing and build a repeatable process: 1) scan totals and game environment, 2) shortlist players by role and red-zone usage, 3) confirm +EV and line-shop. Follow that checklist and you’ll improve your touchdown bets results over the season.