This guide, adapted from a BetSmart walk-through by Eric, shows you how to find winning NFL player props using Outlier.
If you bet player props often, you know the market is massive: passing yards, receiving yards, anytime touchdowns — if a stat can be recorded, there’s a line for it. You’ll learn a repeatable, data-driven process so you can cut through the noise and identify the most +EV opportunities every game day.
Why NFL player props are different (and why they’re great)
Player props are attractive because they let you isolate discrete events and exploit mismatches or market inefficiencies. They’re also plentiful, which means you can be selective. But abundance brings overwhelm — unless you have a consistent system for research. That’s where an all-in-one tool like Outlier speeds things up and helps you act on edges.
Outlier: The toolkit that replaces dozens of tabs
Outlier centralizes the key data you need for NFL player props: hit rates, real-time odds and line movement, injury history (Rotowire feed), matchup splits, target share, public betting splits, and alternate market prices. Instead of bouncing between sites, you filter to the game and markets you want, then run a targeted deep dive on each candidate.
Step-by-step process you can follow every game day
Pick the game(s) you want to attack. Focus gives you better edge hunting than spraying action across every game.
Choose the markets you want to target (receiving yards, anytime TD, receptions, etc.).
Deep dive on each player using a consistent checklist (matchups, injuries, market, supporting stats).
Shop lines across sportsbooks and lock in the best price before you click place.
Example: studying Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards
Walk through the same process for each target. For Garrett Wilson you should examine:
Position matchup: How does the opponent defend WRs overall and specifically versus the slot/outside?
Injuries: Use the Rotowire injury history to see if teammates are returning (which can cut targets) or if opposing defenders are out (which can create an edge).
Line movement & market tracking: See open versus current lines. Wilson’s receiving line might have moved from 57.5 to the mid-60s — that movement tells you how market sentiment evolved.
Supporting stats: Targets, receptions, team pass-run split, and yards per reception. Outlier lets you toggle median vs average so you’re looking at the distribution you prefer.
Target share: If a player commands a large share of a team’s targets (e.g., 39% of team targets), his ceiling and usage matter more than simple hit rate.
Odds history: How have other opposing WRs performed against this defense and at similar lines? Historical over/under outcomes give context.
Line shopping: the single most important habit
After your analysis, always shop the market. Outlier surfaces alternate lines — for example, one book might offer over 63.5 while another offers over 61.5. That 2-yard difference and price variance can meaningfully impact ROI over many bets.
Outlier also connects to major sportsbooks so you can add the selection to a bet slip and jump to the book with the best odds in one click. If you consistently take the best available line, you win more when you’re right and lose less when you’re wrong.
Common mistakes to avoid when betting NFL player props
Ignoring variance and context: Props are noisy. One bad stretch doesn’t mean a player is broken; one great week doesn’t mean a new baseline.
Relying solely on hit rate: Seeing “7 of last 10 overs” is tempting, but sportsbooks price that in. Don’t make hit rate your only reason to bet.
Overreacting to single-game spikes: Investigate the game context (garbage time, injuries, game script) before assuming a trend.
Skipping line shopping: Never take the first line you find; small price improvements compound into big gains over time.
Quick checklist before you place a prop
Have you filtered to the right game and market?
Did you review injuries and positional matchups?
Did you check target share and supporting stats (targets, receptions, pass plays per game)?
Have you examined line movement and odds history?
Have you shopped alternative lines across books?
Is your stake sized for variance and bankroll management?
Recap
When you research NFL player props the right way, you turn a noisy market into a series of repeatable edges. Use a single platform that aggregates injury feeds, matchup splits, target shares, hit rates, real-time odds, and alternate lines. Run the same checklist for each target, and never underestimate line shopping — it’s where you earn consistent value.
FAQ
Q: How often should you bet nfl player props?
You should be selective. Bet when you find a clear edge based on matchup + usage + market mispricing. Frequency depends on how many +EV situations you find; being selective is more important than being active.
Q: Is hit rate useful?
Hit rate is a useful indicator but not a standalone signal. Treat it as one input alongside usage metrics, matchup context, and market movement.
Q: How do you size prop bets given high variance?
Use conservative unit sizes and flat-staking or a % of bankroll approach. Props are high-variance — keep exposure per bet small enough to survive downswings.
Q: Can Outlier replace manual research?
Yes — Outlier aggregates the key datasets most bettors manually pull from multiple sites. It speeds analysis and improves line-shopping efficiency, though you should still apply your own judgement.
Q: What’s the single best habit to improve your results?
Line shopping. The best line wins you extra long-term profit without changing your hit rate.