PrizePicks uses fixed payout multipliers rather than traditional sportsbook odds. Understanding the math behind those payouts can help you evaluate the potential value of an entry.

The PrizePicks EV Calculator lets you enter your picks, estimated win probabilities or fair odds, stake, and payout structure to estimate expected value (EV), return on investment (ROI), and potential profit or loss.

PrizePicks uses fixed payout multipliers rather than traditional sportsbook odds. The payout depends on the type and number of picks in your entry. Because payouts are fixed, you can calculate the approximate break-even probability needed for an entry to return a profit over many similar outcomes.

The PrizePicks EV Calculator makes this math easier by letting you enter your estimated win probability for each pick and compare it against the payout structure. The calculator then estimates the entry's expected value (EV), expected ROI, and potential profit or loss.

Enter the amount you plan to stake, then choose your entry format:

Add between 2–6 picks and enter an estimated win probability or fair American odds for each pick.

The calculator uses each pick's individual win probability rather than assuming every pick has the same probability.

For each pick, you can enter either:

The calculator converts fair American odds into a win probability.

For example:

Important: If you're entering sportsbook odds, remember that sportsbook odds may include a margin. The calculator's odds-to-probability conversion does not remove that margin.

The calculator includes a payout schedule that you can adjust to match the entry you're researching.

Make sure the multipliers match the actual PrizePicks entry you're evaluating.

For example, if a $100 entry has a 3x payout, that means:

A 1x payout means you get your $100 back and break even.

A 0.4x payout means you receive $40 and lose $60.

The calculator's starting payout values are based on the referenced spreadsheet and may differ from current PrizePicks offers, so check the actual entry and update the payout schedule before relying on the results.

Once you've entered your picks, probabilities, stake, and payouts, the calculator shows several results.

Expected ROI estimates the average profit or loss relative to your stake across many similar entries.

For example, a 5% expected ROI means that, if your estimates are accurate, the entry would be expected to return an average profit equal to 5% of the stake over many repetitions.

This estimates the average dollar profit or loss per entry based on your inputs.

Total return includes your original stake.

For example:

The estimated probability that the entry finishes with more money than you staked.

The estimated probability that you lose your entire stake.

This shows the approximate win probability each pick would need if every pick had the same probability in order to break even.

Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss you could expect over many entries with the same probabilities and payouts.

A positive EV means the entry could generate a profit on average if your probability estimates are accurate.

A negative EV means the entry could lose money on average.

The calculator determines EV by looking at every possible outcome, weighting each outcome by its probability and the resulting profit or loss.

In the example above, the calculator shows the probability of each possible result, the applicable payout multiplier, total return, net profit, and how much each outcome contributes to the overall expected value.

EV contribution = outcome probability × net profit

The contributions from all possible outcomes are combined to calculate the entry's expected net profit.

ROI, or return on investment, measures expected profit relative to the amount you're risking.

Expected ROI = Expected Profit ÷ Stake

For example, if your expected profit is $8 on a $100 entry:

$8 ÷ $100 = 8% ROI

The important distinction is that positive EV/ROI doesn't mean the individual entry will win. You can have a positive-EV entry and still lose.

Suppose you have:

The probability that both picks win is:

60% × 60% = 36%

If both win:

If either pick loses:

The expected profit is:

(36% × $200) + (64% × -$100) = $8

That gives you:

However, there is still a 64% chance of losing the full $100 on an individual entry.

Power entries require all picks to hit for the top payout.

Because all picks need to win, there is greater exposure to variance when you add more legs.

Flex entries require at least three picks and can provide partial payouts when some picks miss.

The exact result depends on the payout schedule for the entry. The calculator lets you compare Power and Flex using the same picks and stake, so you can see how changing the entry format affects the expected results.

The calculator makes several assumptions:

Picks from the same game may be correlated, so the EV estimate may not accurately represent the true relationship between those outcomes.

The calculator also includes an optional Kelly Criterion bankroll-sizing tool.

Kelly uses your estimated win probabilities and payouts to suggest a theoretical stake size.

You can also use a fraction of Kelly, such as Quarter Kelly, rather than the full amount.

In the example above, a $100 bankroll with 25% Kelly produces a model stake of $25. The calculator also shows flat-stake comparisons for reference.

Keep in mind that Kelly calculations are only as good as the probabilities you provide. If your win estimates are wrong, the suggested stake can also be wrong.

Positive EV means an entry could earn a profit on average over many similar entries if your probability estimates and payout assumptions are accurate. It does not guarantee that an individual entry will win.

The calculator includes starting payout values based on the referenced spreadsheet. These may differ from current PrizePicks offers, so enter the payouts shown on your actual entry.

Be careful. Picks from the same game may be linked or correlated, while the calculator assumes the picks are independent. This can make the EV estimate inaccurate.

Getting money back does not necessarily mean making a profit.

For example, a 0.4x payout on a $100 entry returns $40, meaning you still lose $60.

A 1x payout returns your original $100 and breaks even.

No. EV represents an average over many similar entries. Individual entries can still win or lose regardless of whether the calculated EV is positive.

The PrizePicks EV Calculator gives you a way to evaluate an entry based on your estimated probabilities, stake, and the actual payout structure.

Use it to compare Power and Flex formats, understand your expected ROI, and see how different probability estimates affect potential results.

Remember that these are estimates, not guarantees. The calculator is only as reliable as the probabilities and payout information you provide.