Use Multi-Book Devigs and Custom Weighting to Increase Your ROI

Today, I'm excited to dive into Outlier's brand new feature: the weighted devig system. If you're unfamiliar with devigging, don't worry—I'll break it down for you in simple terms. This feature will significantly enhance your confidence in the sports bets you place, allowing you to extract better value and ultimately make more profits in the long run.

Watch this 8 minute educational walkthrough of EXACTLY how to use this feature set to sharpen your edge.

Before we get into the nitty-gritty of the weighted devig system, let's clarify what devigging means. Essentially, it refers to the practice of identifying sharp sportsbooks—those that set more accurate odds in certain markets. By comparing their prices to other books, we can spot outliers that offer significant value.

However, to leverage this effectively, we first need to remove the VIG (the bookmaker's margin) from the sportsbook's line. For instance, when you see a price of -110 on each side, that extra 10 cents is the VIG. By stripping this away, we can focus on finding true value compared to the line.

Now, let’s get into how you can utilize this new feature. To start, we'll open the filters tab in Outlier and navigate to the Devig Book section. Here, we can select the books we want to include in our analysis. Typically, Pinnacle is a go-to choice since it’s one of the sharpest books for main lines.

Learn more about Sharp vs Soft Sportsbooks here.

For NBA player props, I'm going to employ a slightly different strategy. Instead of requiring all selected books, I'll set it up to require two out of three sharp books: Pinnacle, FanDuel, and BetOnline. This approach allows us to maximize our chances of uncovering valuable bets.

Next, we need to establish a minimum number of books to produce a fair value line. In this case, I’ll set the minimum to two. This means that if two out of the three books have odds for a specific line, we can use those to find value.

Additionally, we’ll need to create a uniform weight among the selected books. It's crucial to think in terms of parts rather than percentages. In this instance we want to keep them uniform. However, if we assign 75 parts to FanDuel, the remaining parts can be distributed evenly between Pinnacle and BetOnline. In this

Now that we've set our criteria, let’s look for NBA player props. I typically set the range to +200 for bet types in the NBA. Different books excel in different markets, so this method is particularly effective for NBA player props.

For instance, let’s see what results we can get. The first player that pops up is Cam Thompson, who has a line available on FanDuel. Since Pinnacle and BetOnline are our required books, we can confidently say that FanDuel is providing an excellent outlier at +132.

To evaluate whether this is a bet worth taking, we compare the odds. BetOnline lists this price at +113, while Pinnacle shows +110. The closest other book, DraftKings, offers +120, making FanDuel's line a fantastic value at +132.

Let’s check if we can find a bet that meets the three-book DVIG criteria, which is ideal. Here, we have another two-book devig with Pinnacle and BetOnline, and DraftKings is offering +120. Again, this highlights a significant price difference, ensuring that we’re on the right track to finding profitable sports bets.

If you want to be very selective, you can click all the books as required. This will yield some of the best possible plays. If you want to save this filter and set up notifications, you’ll be alerted to great value plays as they arise.

For example, let’s say we see Aaron E. Smith under 1.5 threes at Bet365, where the line is +140. Pinnacle offers +123, and FanDuel is at +112, showing a clear edge at Bet365. This is how I approach player props, ensuring we’re getting the best value.

Feel free to experiment with which books are required. If you require all three books, the options will be limited, but they will be high-quality plays. If you have some time and want to explore more bets, consider switching everything to optional and just requiring two books.

When it comes to betting on NBA main lines, I prefer sticking with the Pinnacle DVIG. They consistently outperform retail books in terms of spreads, totals, and money lines. If you can devig with more books, you'll find even more confidence in your lines.

As this feature has only been available for a short while, there's still some tweaking to be done. However, the options I've laid out are among the safest and most effective ways to find valuable plays.

When you're starting with sports betting or positive EV betting, it's wise to lean towards a safer approach. Requiring multiple books in your Devig settings will help ensure you're identifying true value in your plays.

What's next?

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