Selected Books: Pinnacle, BookMaker, FanDuel, and BetOnline are set to optional, requiring only one book to have odds for fair value calculation.

Reason for Selection: FanDuel and BetOnline are considered ”sharp” books for NFL player props due to their reputation for accurate odds. Pinnacle and BookMaker are considered “Sharp” across all markets due to an operational model which allows them to adjust odds based on large wagers from professional bettors, enabling them to capture market movements before traditional sportsbooks.

Setting: Minimum set to 1.

Rationale: Setting to one increases the number of EV opportunities, users may increase to 2 if they want to reduce risk of odds variation across devig books.

Distribution:

Justification: Each book weight is adjusted based upon their level of accuracy for NFL player props

Selected Method: Average.

Explanation: There is no definitive way to identify where the vigorish (vig) is integrated into the line. Using an average method accounts for all scenarios, thus optimizing the fair value calculation.

Setting: 3%.

Importance: A low variation percentage minimizes uncertainty in the market. Smaller discrepancies between devig books indicate more stable betting opportunities.

Setting: 1/4.

Reasoning: Given the lower liquidity and less information shaping the lines in player prop markets (compared to gamelines), a less aggressive betting strategy is warranted to managing risk.

Setting: 1%.

Rationale: This low threshold allows for the identification of most potential opportunities. By analyzing odds movements, you can discern where sharp money is influencing the lines. A shift in odds (e.g., -110 to -140) indicates that sharp money is likely impacting that side, making it a target for betting even at low EV%.

Setting: 0%.

Explanation: By setting this at zero, no potential value is left unaccounted for, maximizing opportunities.

Adjustment: No adjustments made here.

Reasoning: The market width and fair value settings filter out markets with high vig%

Settings: Minimum odds of -200 and a maximum of +200.

Rationale: Odds over +200 signify a 33% win probability, which introduces higher variance that can complicate predictions.

Setting: Maximum market width 40

Reasoning: Player proposition bets have higher variance than mainlines due to unpredictable individual performance, leading sportsbooks to set wider markets because they are less confident in their lines. Our settings reflect the greater uncertainty of player props while still filtering out markets with the lowest confidence.

Selected Type: Player Props only.

Justification: Setting a filter for only for player props allows us to focus on which sportsbooks set the most accurate NFL player prop odds

Setting: Next 3 days.

Rationale: Betting on events occurring many days or weeks away introduces more variance, making it harder to predict odds movements accurately. The date setting is expanded to 3 days for the NFL (compared to 24 hrs for other league filters) due to NFL games only occurring a few days a week and higher betting volume allowing for greater odds accuracy a few days from the event date.

Selected Leagues: NFL

Reason: Setting a filter for only the NFL allows us to focus on which sportsbooks set the most accurate NFL player prop odds

Selected Books: FanDuel is set to required. Pinnacle, BookMaker, DraftKings and Caesars are set to optional

Reason for Selection: FanDuel is considered the “Sharpest” book for NBA player props due to their reputation for accurate odds. Pinnacle and BookMaker are considered “Sharp” across all markets due to an operational model which allows them to adjust odds based on large wagers from professional bettors, enabling them to capture market movements before traditional sportsbooks. DraftKings and Caesars also have shown relatively high NBA player props odds accuracy in recent seasons, albeit less so than FanDuel. If you primarily bet on FanDuel, consider changing FanDuel from a required to an optional book, though be wary of their odds accuracy for NBA player props.

Setting: Minimum set to 1.

Rationale: FanDuel alone is sufficient for devigging since it has displayed consistent odds accuracy over multiple seasons and has broad coverage of NBA player prop markets. Optional devig books will be considered when odds are available for a given market.

Distribution:

Justification: Each book weight is adjusted based upon their level of accuracy for NBA player props

Selected Method: Average.

Explanation: There is no definitive way to identify where the vigorish (vig) is integrated into the line. Using an average method accounts for all scenarios, thus optimizing the fair value calculation.

Setting: 3%.

Importance: A low variation percentage minimizes uncertainty in the market. Smaller discrepancies between devig books indicate more stable betting opportunities.

Setting: 1/4.

Reasoning: Given the lower liquidity and less information shaping the lines in player prop markets (compared to gamelines), a less aggressive betting strategy is warranted to managing risk.

Setting: 1%.

Rationale: This low threshold allows for the identification of most potential opportunities. By analyzing odds movements, you can discern where sharp money is influencing the lines. A shift in odds (e.g., -110 to -140) indicates that sharp money is likely impacting that side, making it a target for betting even at low EV%.

Setting: 0%.

Explanation: By setting this at zero, no potential value is left unaccounted for, maximizing opportunities.

Adjustment: No adjustments made here.

Reasoning: The market width and fair value settings filter out markets with high vig%

Settings: Minimum odds of -200 and a maximum of +200.

Rationale: Odds over +200 signify a 33% win probability, which introduces higher variance that can complicate predictions.

Setting: Maximum market width 40

Reasoning: Player proposition bets have higher variance than mainlines due to unpredictable individual performance, leading sportsbooks to set wider markets because they are less confident in their lines. Our settings reflect the greater uncertainty of player props while still filtering out markets with the lowest confidence.

Selected Type: Player Props only.

Justification: Setting a filter for only for player props allows us to focus on which sportsbooks set the most accurate NBA player prop odds

Setting: 24 hours away.

Rationale: Betting on events occurring days away introduces more variance, making it harder to predict odds movements accurately.

Selected Leagues: NBA

Reason: Setting a filter for only the NBA allows us to focus on which sportsbooks set the most accurate NBA player prop odds

Selected Books: Pinnacle, Circa, and BookMaker are set to optional, requiring only one book to have odds for fair value calculation.

Reason for Selection: These three books are considered "Sharp" due to their reputation for accurate odds. Their operational model allows them to adjust odds based on large wagers from professional bettors, enabling them to capture market movements before traditional sportsbooks.

Setting: Minimum set to 1.

Rationale: Circa and BookMaker offer limited alternative markets. Setting the minimum to one prevents missing valuable odds from these books. While using more devig books increases accuracy, Pinnacle alone often provides highly reliable numbers.

Distribution: All books are equally weighted at 50/50/50.

Justification: Each selected book has a comparable level of accuracy, ensuring a balanced assessment of fair value.

Selected Method: Average.

Explanation: There is no definitive way to identify where the vigorish (vig) is integrated into the line. Using an average method accounts for all scenarios, thus optimizing the fair value calculation.

Setting: 3%.

Importance: A low variation percentage minimizes uncertainty in the market. Smaller discrepancies between devig books indicate more stable betting opportunities.

Setting: 1/2.

Reasoning: Given the larger liquidity and better information shaping the lines in main markets, a more aggressive betting strategy is warranted, allowing for quicker bankroll scaling while managing risk.

Setting: 1%.

Rationale: This low threshold allows for the identification of nearly every potential opportunity. By analyzing odds movements, you can discern where sharp money is influencing the lines. A shift in odds (e.g., -110 to -140) indicates that sharp money is likely impacting that side, making it a target for betting even at low EV%.

Setting: 0%.

Explanation: By setting this at zero, no potential value is left unaccounted for, maximizing opportunities.

Setting: 8%.

Justification: Most main markets have a vig lower than 8%. This setting ensures that value is preserved in the betting process.

Settings: No minimum odds and a maximum of +200.

Rationale: Odds over +200 signify a 33% win probability, which introduces higher variance that can complicate predictions.

Adjustment: No adjustments made here.

Reasoning: Most main markets have a market width lower than 30. This setting ensures that value is preserved in the betting process.

Selected Type: Game lines only.

Justification: Circa, BookMaker, and Pinnacle are leaders in main market betting, ensuring high liquidity and trustworthy market movements.

Setting: 24 hours away.

Rationale: Betting on events occurring days away introduces more variance, making it harder to predict odds movements accurately.

Selected Leagues: MLB, NHL, NFL, NBA.

Reason: These leagues represent the largest U.S. markets. College sports and WNBA are excluded due to their volatility and significantly lower liquidity compared to the major leagues.

Selected Books: All books are set to optional

Reason for Selection: Including all sportsbooks in our devig process allows us to capitalize on the wide breadth of odds data we have from a variety of sportsbooks, DFS sites, offshore books, and other betting platforms

Setting: Minimum set to 3.

Rationale: This filter incorporates both traditional “Sharp” books as well as recreational sportsbook, so using more devig books increases accuracy

Distribution: All books are equally weighted at 50/50/50.

Justification: Book sharpness varies by league and bet type, and this filter attempts to find opportunities across all sports betting markets. Thus, we are weighing all books equally

Selected Method: Average.

Explanation: There is no definitive way to identify where the vigorish (vig) is integrated into the line. Using an average method accounts for all scenarios, thus optimizing the fair value calculation.

Setting: 3%.

Importance: A low variation percentage minimizes uncertainty in the market. Smaller discrepancies between devig books indicate more stable betting opportunities. We are mainly looking for EV opportunities where there is a strong market consensus and one soft book who is lagging behind the odds set by the rest of the bookmakers

Setting: 1/4.

Reasoning: Given the lower liquidity and less information shaping the lines in prop markets (which are included in our filter), a less aggressive betting strategy is warranted to managing risk.

Setting: 2%.

Rationale: This low threshold allows for the identification of most potential opportunities. By analyzing odds movements, you can discern where sharp money is influencing the lines. A shift in odds (e.g., -110 to -140) indicates that sharp money is likely impacting that side, making it a target for betting even at low EV%.

Setting: 0%.

Explanation: By setting this at zero, no potential value is left unaccounted for, maximizing opportunities.

Adjustment: No adjustments made here.

Reasoning: The market width and fair value settings filter out markets with high vig%

Settings: No minimum odds and a maximum of +200.

Rationale: Odds over +200 signify a 33% win probability, which introduces higher variance that can complicate predictions.

Setting: Maximum market width 40

Reasoning: Prop bets have higher variance than mainlines due to unpredictable performances and lower betting volume, leading sportsbooks to set wider markets because they are less confident in their lines. Our settings reflect the greater uncertainty of props while still filtering out markets with the lowest confidence.

Selected Type: All markets

Justification: This allows us to identify mispriced odds across all sports betting markets that Outlier covers

Setting: 24 hours away.

Rationale: Betting on events occurring days away introduces more variance, making it harder to predict odds movements accurately.

Selected Leagues: All leagues

Reason: This allows us to identify mispriced odds across all sports betting markets that Outlier covers